The pattern of refrigerant supply and demand continues to improve

Fluorine chemicals are divided into inorganic fluorides and organic fluorides. Inorganic fluorides refer to non-hydrocarbon compounds containing fluorine in fluorine chemical products; organic fluorides refer to hydrocarbons containing fluorine in fluorine chemical products, mainly including Fluorine polymer materials, fluorine-containing refrigerants, and fluorine-containing fine chemicals are classified into three categories.

Fluorine chemical industry in my country has special resource advantages, and the advantages gradually disappear. The basic resources of fluorine chemical industry are world-class resources similar to fluorite, fluorite and rare earth. my country is the world's largest fluorite resource country. The global identified fluorite ore reserves are about 310 million tons of minerals, including Mexico, China, South Africa and Mongolia fluorite. The world's top four stone reserves, accounting for about 56% of the world's reserves, my country's reserves reached 42 million tons, accounting for 13.5% of the global reserves, China's fluorite production accounted for about 57% of the world's annual output, China's fluorite resource reserves and production ratio ( Fluorite is a non-renewable natural resource and has been included in my country's "Strategic Mineral Catalogue", and China has 63% of fluorite The product is used in the fluorine chemical industry and is the main consumption area of fluorite. In recent years, my country has gradually shifted from net export to net import, and the self-sufficiency rate of fluorite has been declining year by year.

Fluorosilicic acid by-produced from phosphate rock will become an important supplement to fluorine resources. In industry, concentrated sulfuric acid and acid grade fluorite fine powder are commonly used to produce anhydrous hydrofluoric acid to extract fluorine. The production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in my country is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu, Shandong, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia and other places. The concentration of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in my country is relatively low, and the production capacity of most enterprises does not exceed 60,000 tons. When phosphate rock is used as raw material to produce wet-process phosphoric acid, a large amount of fluorine-containing gas will be emitted, and fluorosilicic acid will be obtained after water absorption and treatment. Under normal circumstances, the phosphorus chemical industry produces at least 0.05 tons of fluorosilicic acid for every ton of wet-process phosphoric acid (converted to pure P2O5). In December 2021, the production capacity of hydrofluoric acid will reach 2.5 million tons, the production capacity of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid by the fluorite method will account for 95% of the national production capacity, and the production capacity of hydrofluoric acid by the fluorosilicic acid method will account for 5% of the national production capacity. Compared with the fluorite method, the production of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride from fluorosilicic acid has the characteristics of low cost and less pollution, and at the same time, it can effectively prevent the impact of fluorine on the surrounding environment during the production of phosphoric acid, which is important for environmental protection and fluorite resource protection. significance.

In the downstream demand of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, refrigerants account for 44%, fluoropolymers account for 16%, fluoride salts account for 9%, exports account for 13%, and lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) accounts for 3%.

Fluorocarbon chemicals are mainly used as refrigerants, foaming agents, aerosol propellants, fire extinguishing agents, cleaning agents for electronic and electrical and precision components, and can also be used as raw materials for the production of fluorine-containing polymer materials and fine fluorine chemicals. Refrigerants that have been or have been widely used around the world include CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs.

The first-generation refrigerants have the greatest damage to the ozone layer and have been phased out globally; the second-generation refrigerants have relatively little damage to the ozone layer, and have been basically phased out in developed countries in Europe and the United States, and are widely used in my country and are currently in the phase-out stage; Substitute refrigerants do not damage the ozone layer, and gradually replace HCFCs in developing countries. However, the GWP value is relatively high and the greenhouse effect is relatively significant. A few developed countries have begun to reduce the amount. The fourth-generation refrigerants refer to refrigerants that do not destroy the ozone layer and have a lower GWP value, but the development trend and mainstream products of these refrigerants have not yet been finalized.

HCFCs used as refrigerants are phased out by 2030. Since my country joined the Montreal Protocol in 1991, it has actively participated in the elimination of ODS and implemented a quota system for the production, sale and use of HCFCs. According to the "Montreal Protocol", based on the average production in 2009-2010, it will be frozen in 2013, with a cumulative reduction of 10% in 2015, a cumulative reduction of 35% in 2020, and a cumulative reduction of 67.5% in 2025. Post-production is limited to the repair of refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment that still exists.

The Ministry of Environmental Protection issued regulations in January 2018: 1. Prohibit new construction, expansion of production and use as controlled uses such as refrigerants, foaming agents, fire extinguishing agents, solvents, cleaning agents, processing aids, aerosols, soil fumigants, etc. 2. Reconstruction and other construction projects for the production of ozone-depleting substances for controlled purposes, prohibiting the increase in the production capacity of ozone-depleting substances; 3. New construction, reconstruction and expansion of production of ozone-depleting substances for chemical raw materials The ozone depleting substances produced are only used as special raw materials for the downstream chemical products of the enterprise, and shall not be sold externally. Every year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection will issue a notice on the production and use quotas of ozone-depleting substances for the next year, requiring all enterprises to organize the production, sales, procurement and use of the corresponding ozone-depleting substances in accordance with the approved production and use quotas. In the case of total control, the state allocates production quotas for the subsequent production freeze period based on the average output of each manufacturer during the baseline year, and the overall annual quota will be allocated according to the market share of each enterprise during the base year.

The second-generation refrigerant transitions to the third-generation refrigerant, the second-generation quota has been set, and the third-generation base year is coming to an end. In 2016, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol adopted the "Kigali Amendment" on the reduction of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which stipulated the withdrawal time of the third-generation refrigerants, and developing countries including my country On the basis of its average HFCs use from 2020 to 2022, it should freeze and reduce HFCs consumption and production in 2024, start reductions in 2029, and reduce HFCs use to within 20% of its baseline value after 2045.

The third-generation refrigerant will take 2020 to 2022 as the "baseline year", and the total supply after 2024 will only decrease but not increase, and the quota will be allocated according to the market share of each enterprise during the baseline year. Various companies compete for quota ahead of time through rapid capacity expansion. The production capacity of the third-generation refrigerants R32 and R125 has increased by 86% and 32% respectively compared with 2018. The rapid expansion of production capacity has led to lower prices. 2022 is the base year. In the last year, considering the cycle of new capacity expansion, there will be almost no new capacity for third-generation refrigerants in 2021.

Supply-side reforms have driven the exit of outdated production capacity. The refrigerant industry was in a boom from 2017 to 2018. In 2019, the demand for air conditioners declined, which led to a drop in demand for refrigerants, which in turn led to lower prices. The epidemic in 2020 led to an overall decline in refrigerant prices. In 2021, the price of refrigerants showed a steady upward trend in the first half of the year. In the third quarter, due to the impact of the dual control policy on energy consumption, the policy of power and production restrictions caused the supply of upstream raw materials to be tight, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry decreased, and the price of refrigerants rose rapidly. R22 And the price of R134a hit a new high in nearly 3 years. In 2021Q4, the power curtailment policy was lifted, production gradually resumed, and refrigerant prices began to cool down, which still rose to varying degrees compared with the beginning of the year.

The production quota of second-generation refrigerants continues to decline, and the industry will further switch from second-generation refrigerants to third-generation refrigerants. At present, the capacity expansion of third-generation refrigerants is coming to an end. With the further reduction of overseas third-generation refrigerants, export demand Improvement, the long-term supply and demand pattern of third-generation refrigerants is expected to improve.

High value-added fluoride becomes a long-term focus

Polyvinylidene fluoride resin (PVDF) has excellent chemical corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, oxidation resistance, weather resistance, ultraviolet resistance and high temperature radiation resistance, as well as excellent tensile strength and impact strength. Compared with other fluorine-containing polymer materials, PVDF is superior in melting and dissolving properties, and can be melted by general-purpose processing equipment for molding, extrusion, and injection molding. In addition, PVDF is widely used in the membrane material of lithium battery and the membrane material of solar cell. In 2021, battery-grade PVDF products will increase from 120,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 550,000-600,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The demand for power batteries drives PVDF to continue to be in short supply.

In 2020, battery-grade products for lithium batteries will account for 19% of PVDF demand, and will account for about 40% in 2021. It is estimated that domestic demand for PVDF will reach 138,000 tons by 2025, of which the demand for battery-grade products for lithium batteries will reach 9.9%. 10,000 yuan, accounting for 71% of my country's total PVDF demand in 2025.

The expansion of PVDF production is subject to environmental impact assessment, safety assessment, energy assessment and other procedures, and its main raw material R142b continues to be tight. Due to its damage to the ozone layer, the approval of new production capacity of R142b is extremely strict, and the current planned new supply capacity is very likely to be lower than expected , We have calculated that the existing production capacity is about 84,000 tons, and some of the production capacity cannot meet the demand for battery-level products. It is estimated that there is an expected production capacity of about 102,500 tons in 2022, of which 83,500 tons will be put into operation at the end of the year or postponed to December, 19,000 tons. The ton of production capacity will be put into operation in the middle of the year or in Q3. The increase in supply and demand for the actual demand for the whole year is limited. Considering the continued strong demand for PVDF and the supply released by restraint, PVDF will continue to be in short supply in 2022, and it is expected to maintain a good profit in the medium and long term. level.

The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is stable at a high level, and the inventory of enterprises has dropped significantly. Only some companies maintain a small amount of turnover inventory. On the whole, the market supply of lithium fluorophosphate continued to increase with the increase in the volume of enterprises this Saturday. With the continued high price of raw materials, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained strong, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained stable and rose in the short term. It is expected that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to be temporarily stable or will slightly increase. Recently, the price of raw materials has continued to rise, and the cost of hexafluoro enterprises has risen rapidly, and many companies have expressed their intention to increase prices.